Preliminary Study on the Electricity-Price-Driven Operation of an Electrolysis Plant Using Renewable Electricity

The research project “Electricity-Price-Driven Electrolysis Plant” investigated how green hydrogen can be produced economically under future market conditions. To this end, the project examined the techno-economic optimization of a multi-MW electrolysis system powered by PV and wind energy. Taking into account an electricity price forecast for 2028 as well as current regulatory framework conditions (REDIII), the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE analyzes viable operating strategies. The added value: a solid basis for decision-making regarding investments in large-scale electrolysis.

Initial Situation

As the hydrogen economy gains momentum, the need for economically viable electrolysis concepts is growing. At the same time, volatile electricity prices, uncertain market forecasts, and complex regulatory requirements are creating planning risks. In particular, the requirements of the Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II, Delegated Act) and site-specific conditions are complicating investment decisions. There is a lack of integrated analyses that systematically bring together technology, market, and regulation.

Objective

The goal of the project was to develop a sound basis for decision-making regarding the cost-effective operation of a multi-MW electrolysis system in 2028. To this end, various electrolysis technologies (PEM, AEL—both pressurized and atmospheric) as well as operating strategies based on electricity price forecasts were evaluated from a techno-economic perspective. In addition, site-specific and regulatory requirements were to be analyzed in an integrated manner in order to derive robust and scalable concepts for practical application.

Approach

The Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE modeled and simulated the large-scale electrolysis system using the H2ProSim simulation toolbox (link). In doing so, various electrolysis technologies and different operational strategies were analyzed and compared. The studies were based on an electricity price forecast for the year 2028 and the integration of PV and wind power profiles. GIS analyses were used to evaluate suitable locations and take regulatory requirements into account. The combination of technical, market, and site analyses enabled a comprehensive techno-economic assessment.

Results

A variety of plant scenarios were dynamically simulated, and their respective economic viability was assessed. Based on this, optimal plant designs were identified, taking into account the specific conditions and assumptions.

Specific results cannot be published due to confidentiality.

nicht entfernen!!