The annual target of the German Federal Government for PV capacity increase of 2.5 GW was exceeded in 2020, but the goals of the energy transformation are still far away.
In order to cover all of our energy needs from renewable energies (RE), a massive expansion of the installed PV power is necessary, along with a number of other measures. More recent model-based scenarios calculate a reduction of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions by at least 90% in relation to 1990, with a PV expansion corridor of 130-650 GWp nominal capacity ([Prog], [BCG], [ESYS], [ISE11], [UBA8], [IRENA], [ISE12]). The scenarios make different assumptions about boundary conditions, e.g. for energy source imports and questions of acceptance. Based on the scenarios "reference" and "inacceptance" [ISE12], a magnitude of 500 GWp installed PV capacity seems to be plausible.
If we calculate a PV expansion to 500 GWp by 2050, an average of 15 GWp of PV will have to be added annually. Increasingly, old systems must also be replaced. These replacement installations are currently still of little importance, but they will increase to the same order of magnitude of 15 GWp per year when fully expanded, assuming a lifetime of 30 years.
The German Renewable Energy Sources Act [EEG2021] defines the goal of making the electricity generated or consumed in Germany greenhouse gas neutral by 2050 at the latest. An intermediate target of 2030 is set at a share of renewable energies (RE) of 65 percent of gross electricity consumption. This requires an average annual PV addition of at least 5-10 GWp, depending on the development of electricity demand and the expansion of wind power ([AGORA1], [BEE]). The German Renewable Energy Sources Act [EEG2021], on the other hand, sets the PV expansion target at 100 GWp, corresponding to an average addition of just under 5 GWp per year.
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