The share of solar power will increase strongly in the future power supply. Since PV power generation varies with clouds and the course of the day, predicting and characterizing solar radiation is essential . This allows efficient integration of PV into the power grid and marketing of solar power at the energy market. In the long term, solar resource data can ensure reliable yield of solar power plants.
"SOLREV" investigates and evaluates models for providing solar radiation data and forecasts to estimate solar power generation. The project enables German participation in Task 16 of the Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS) of the International Energy Agency (IEA) with Fraunhofer ISE representing the topic of solar radiation forecasting.
In the "SOLREV" project, both methods for providing long-term solar radiation data and approaches for short-term forecasting of solar irradiation are being investigated and evaluated. The focus of the Fraunhofer Institutes ISE and IEE is on the analysis of new methods for solar radiation and solar power forecasting from different perspectives:
- What is the economic value of forecasts for different applications? This is investigated in case studies, e.g. on grid integration of PV.
- How suitable are different approaches for regional PV projections and forecasts? Different methods for PV extrapolation are evaluated against a reference data set created within SOLREV.
- Which methods can be used to reliably describe the uncertainty of forecasts? For this purpose, an international comparison of probabilistic forecasts is carried out.
We address these research questions in international cooperation within the framework of the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programmme Task 16 "Solar resource for high penetration and large scale applications” with about 50 partners from 17 countries.
Initial results from SOLREV were contributed to the third edition of the "Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications", published in early June 2021.
The new edition of the handbook was coordinated in international collaboration by the IEA PVPS Task. The handbook is available free of charge on the IEA PVPS Task 16 homepage, aiming at its worldwide acceptance and the widest possible dissemination and application in solar energy. A further update with new results from SOLREV is planned for 2023 to reflect rapid developments in the solar industry and resource analysis methodologies.
A series of industry workshops will be held to disseminate the project's findings to the industry and obtain feedback from users. As far as possible, the relevant results will also be taken into account in further improvements of trainings, evaluations or research approaches. Intersolar Europe in Munich is planned as the venue and framework for the workshops.