Cost Analysis of Large-Scale Production of Green Hydrogen and Synthesis Products in Ireland and their Export to Germany

The "HYreland" project investigated the technological, economic, and environmental potential for producing green hydrogen and hydrogen-based synthetic products in Ireland, taking into account onward transport to Germany. The project partners examined two locations for economic viability and cost reduction potential and compared Ireland with other hydrogen-producing countries. In addition, the greenhouse gas efficiency of the hydrogen supply chains and the suitability of the analyzed hydrogen derivatives with regard to the European Union's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) were considered.

Initial Situation

Ireland could soon be known not only for its green landscapes, but also for its production of green energy sources. With its excellent wind potential, both onshore and offshore, Ireland can become a major player in the production of green hydrogen and derivatives such as ammonia and synthetic kerosene (power-to-X, PtX). Its proximity to mainland Europe also makes Ireland a promising candidate for large-scale exports of green energy to Germany. Political development plans for offshore and onshore wind energy support these goals by identifying significant potential for fixed and floating offshore wind turbines and setting a target of over 35 GWel of installed wind capacity in Ireland by 2045. In its national hydrogen strategy, Ireland emphasizes the importance of the offshore wind sector. The country has set a development target of 2 GW of offshore capacity for green hydrogen production by 2030.

Objective

The HYreland project analyzed the technological, economic, and environmental potential for green hydrogen and synthesis products in Ireland and for export. Our goal was to determine whether the identified sites are suitable for economical green PtX production, which innovative systems offer further cost reduction potential, and how Ireland compares to other potential hydrogen producers. The assessment covered the energy carriers liquid hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, dimethyl ether (DME), and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) products such as e-kerosene.

Approach

Under our leadership, a study was conducted in three steps:

• Location Analysis: First, we used a specially developed and validated GIS methodology to identify the most suitable locations for renewable energy and power-to-X hubs throughout Ireland.
• Techno-Economic Analyses: ESB then selected two locations – Aghada in Cork and Moneypoint in Clare – which were subjected to a detailed techno-economic analysis using the “H2ProSim” toolbox developed by Fraunhofer ISE over the last 10 years to assess their economic viability. In addition to local generation costs, we also calculated the transport and delivery costs to Rotterdam (NL), Duisburg (DE), and Stade (DE) by ship or pipeline.
• Development of Hydrogen Regions: Finally, we evaluated further scenarios that incorporate particularly innovative approaches to further cost reduction into the analyses. For the German end-user side in Duisburg and Stade, we modeled the design of local “hydrogen regions” in our associated “HYSCOPE” model and discussed their development potential.
• Sustainability Assessment: Using prospective life-cycle assessment, we also examined the ecological aspects of the analyzed supply chains and included them in the evaluation.

This research was supplemented by the activities of the International Energy Research Centre (IERC), which conducted a holistic energy system analysis for Ireland and analyzed the potential of an Irish hydrogen market.

Result

Preliminary results show that Ireland can compete with leading international locations for green hydrogen. Thanks to excellent wind conditions, existing energy infrastructure, and a strategic location for the European market, the country offers ideal conditions. Agahda and Moneypoint in particular have great synergy potential due to their grid connection, proximity to offshore wind farms, and port and refinery infrastructure (see also “Interim results HYreland – Work Package 3”). With growing demand from air and sea transport, the task now is to lower regulatory hurdles and expand infrastructure. In subsequent research collaborations, Fraunhofer ISE could continue its research in large-scale demonstration projects, mini-plants, and digital twins, as well as analyze economic and regulatory frameworks. Ireland and the collaboration with industry partner ESB are laying the necessary institutional foundations for this – HYreland forms the basis for this.

The project "HYreland" is funded by the Federal Ministry of Research, Technology and Space  (BMFTR).

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