Forecasting of Solar Irradiance and Power

Services

Satellite-Based Real-time Data and Forecasts of Solar Irradiance

PV Power Forecasting

Short-Term Forecasting of PV Power with Sky Imagers

Forecast Periods

We offer forecasting systems for the following time ranges

Short- and Medium-range Forecasting

Nowcasting

Solar energy is subject to considerable temporal and spatial fluctuations. With the increasing share of solar energy in our energy supply system, the requirements for solar forecasts are also increasing. These forecasts form the basis for the cost-optimized use of various energy management options such as storage, control energy and controllable loads - all with the aim of integrating solar energy into our energy system at low cost. Today, PV forecasting plays an important role for trading with PV electricity and scheduling of power plants.

At Fraunhofer ISE, we are working on the development of forecasting models for the reliable prediction of the solar power for time scales from a few minutes up to several days and areas from single locations to regions of many kilometers. For this, our team of physicists, meteorologists and IT specialists combines input data from various sources (cloud camera images, satellite-based data, numerical forecasts) into a variety of different forecast models.

The focus of our research activities is the optimization of the forecasts for different applications in close cooperation with the users, as well as the development of probabilistic forecasts for the reliable description of forecast uncertainties and the reduction of the associated costs.

 

PV2WP

PV Prediction for Grid-Compatible Control of Heat Pumps

 

PV2Go

Solar Potentials of German Traffic Routes

 

PV-Live

Operational Delivery of Solar Irradiance and Simulated Photovoltaic Power Data to Transnet BW

Current Publications - Forecasting of Solar Irradiance and Power:

Jahr
Year
Titel/Autor:in
Title/Author
Publikationstyp
Publication Type
2023 Benefits of pairing floating solar photovoltaics with hydropower reservoirs in Europe
Kakoulaki, Georgia; Gonzalez Sanchez , Rocio; Gracia Amillo, Ana Maria; Szabo, Sandor; Felice, Matteo de; Farinosi, Fabio; Felice, Luca de; Bisselink, Berny; Seliger, Roman; Kougias, Ioannis; Jaeger-Waldau, Arnulf
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Journal Article
2023 Analysing Grid-Level Effects of Photovoltaic Self-Consumption Using a Stochastic Bottom-up Model of Prosumer Systems
Karalus, Steffen; Köpfer, Benedikt; Guthke, Philipp; Killinger, Sven; Lorenz, Elke
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Journal Article
2022 The Influence of Different Degradation Characteristics on the Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Silicon Photovoltaics: A Threefold Analysis
Herceg, Sina; Kaaya, Ismail; Ascencio-Vásquez, Julián; Fischer, Marie; Weiß, Karl-Anders; Schebek, Liselotte
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Journal Article
2022 High Resolution Measurement Network of Global Horizontal and Tilted Solar Irradiance in Southern Germany with a New Quality Control Scheme
Lorenz, E.; Guthke, P.; Dittmann, A.; Holland, N.; Herzberg, W.; Karalus, S.; Müller, B.; Braun, C.; Heydenreich, W.; Saint-Drenan, Y.-M.
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Journal Article
2022 Improved Blending of PV Power Forecasts in Case of Measurements with Limited Reliability
Herzberg, Wiebke; Holland, Nicolas; Zech, Tobias; Bor, Jefferson; Lorenz, Elke
Vortrag
Presentation
2021 Modelling PV self-consumption at portfolio level
Karalus, Steffen; Köpfer, Benedikt; Guthke, Philipp; Killinger, Sven; Lorenz, Elke
Konferenzbeitrag
Conference Paper
2021 Modelling PV Self-consumption at Portfolio Level
Karalus, Steffen; Köpfer, Benedikt; Guthke, Philipp; Killinger, Sven; Lorenz, Elke
Konferenzbeitrag
Conference Paper
2021 Referenzzellen vs. Pyranometer - Abweichungen und Umrechnung von Messwerten
Rivera Aguilar, M.J.; Reise, C.
Konferenzbeitrag
Conference Paper
2021 Energy Yield Simulation of 3D Curved VIPV Modules
Neven-du Mont, Sebastian; Alharthi, Hashem; Kutter, Christoph; Neuhaus, Holger; Heinrich, Martin
Konferenzbeitrag
Conference Paper
2021 A new sky imager based global irradiance forecasting model with analyses of cirrus situations
Dittmann, A.; Holland, N.; Lorenz, E.
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Journal Article
2020 Ecological Synergy Effects of Agrivoltaic Systems
Keinath, Tobias; Högy, Petra; Trommsdorff, Maximilian; Went, Joachim
Vortrag
Presentation
2020 Zukünftige netzintegration von PV-Eigenverbrauch
Karalus, Steffen; Reise, Christian; Zech, Tobias; Holland, Nicolas; Herzberg, Wiebke; AlSayegh, Ghanem; Killinger, Sven; Guthke, Philipp; Lorenz, Elke
Vortrag
Presentation
2020 Minute Resolution Measurement Network for Global Horizontal and Tilted Solar Irradiance for a Transmission System Control Area in Southern Germany
Lorenz, E.; Holland, N.; Dittmann, A.; Herzberg, W.; Karalus, S.; Heydenreich, W.; Braun, C.; Guthke, P.; Semmig, A.
Konferenzbeitrag
Conference Paper
2020 PV Eigenverbrauch: Hochaufgelöste Modellierung von PV-Erzeugung und Verbrauch für verbesserte Einspeiseprognosen
Karalus, Steffen; Reise, Christian; Zech, Tobias; Holland, Nicolas; Herzberg, Wiebke; AlSayegh, Ghanem; Killinger, Sven; Lorenz, Elke; Guthke, Philipp
Konferenzbeitrag
Conference Paper
2020 Verification of deterministic solar forecasts
Yang, Dazhi; Alessandrini, Stefano; Antonanzas, Javier; Antonanzas-Torres, F.; Badescu, Viorel; Beyer, Hans Georg; Blaga, Robert; Boland, John; Bright, Jamie M.; Coimbra, Carlos F.M.; David, Mathieu; Frimane, Âzeddine; Gueymard, Christian A.; Hong, Tao; Kay, Merline J.; Killinger, Sven; Kleissl, Jan; Lauret, Philippe; Lorenz, Elke; Meer, Dennis van der; Paulescu, Marius; Perez, Richard; Perpiñán-Lamigueiro, Oscar; Peters, Ian Marius; Reikard, Gordon; Renné, David; Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie; Shuai, Yong; Urraca, Ruben; Verbois, Hadrien; Vignola, Frank; Voyant, Cyril; Zhang, Jie
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Journal Article
2020 Systemmodellierung und Simulation zur Optimierung der PV-Speisung von Wärmepumpen durch Kurzfristprognosen mit Wolkenkameras
Dittmann, Anna; Villegas Mier, Oscar; Ruf, Holger; Kober, Patrick; Lorenz, Elke; Schmidt, Michael
Konferenzbeitrag
Conference Paper
2019 40 Jahre nach dem "Atlas über die Sonnenstrahlung in Europa". Umfang und Qualität Heutiger Einstrahlungsdatensätze
Reise, C.; Lorenz, E.; Müller, B.
Konferenzbeitrag
Conference Paper
2019 Optimierung der PV-Speisung von Wärmepumpen durch Kurzfristprognosen mit Wolkenkameras
Dittmann, A.; Kober, P.; Lorenz, E.; Villegas Mier, O.; Ruf, H.; Schad, P.; Schmidt, M.
Konferenzbeitrag
Conference Paper
2019 Energy yield analysis of textured perovskite silicon tandem solar cells and modules
Tucher, Nico; Höhn, Oliver; Narasimha Murthy, Jayanth; Martínez Sánchez, Juan Francisco; Steiner, Marc; Armbruster, Alfons; Lorenz, Elke; Bläsi, Benedikt; Goldschmidt, Jan Christoph
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Journal Article
2019 PV-Live. Auswertung satellitenbasierter und gemessener Solarstrahlungsdaten für PV-Hochrechnungen
Lorenz, E.; Heydenreich, W.; Braun, C.; Holland, N.; Xu-Sigurdsson, B.; Zech, T.; Dittmann, A.; Karalus, S.; Guthke, P.
Konferenzbeitrag
Conference Paper
2017 Angle dependence of solar cells and modules: The role of cell texturization
Geisemeyer, I.; Tucher, N.; Müller, B.; Steinkemper, H.; Hohl-Ebinger, J.; Schubert, M.C.; Warta, W.
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Journal Article
Diese Liste ist ein Auszug aus der Publikationsplattform Fraunhofer-Publica

This list has been generated from the publication platform Fraunhofer-Publica