Forecasting of Solar Irradiance and Power


Satellite-Based Real-time Data and Forecasts of Solar Irradiance

PV Power Forecasting

Short-Term Forecasting of PV Power with Sky Imagers

Forecast Periods

We offer forecasting systems for the following time ranges

Short- and Medium-range Forecasting


Solar energy is subject to considerable temporal and spatial fluctuations. With the increasing share of solar energy in our energy supply system, the requirements for solar forecasts are also increasing. These forecasts form the basis for the cost-optimized use of various energy management options such as storage, control energy and controllable loads - all with the aim of integrating solar energy into our energy system at low cost. Today, PV forecasting plays an important role for trading with PV electricity and scheduling of power plants.

At Fraunhofer ISE, we are working on the development of forecasting models for the reliable prediction of the solar power for time scales from a few minutes up to several days and areas from single locations to regions of many kilometers. For this, our team of physicists, meteorologists and IT specialists combines input data from various sources (cloud camera images, satellite-based data, numerical forecasts) into a variety of different forecast models.

The focus of our research activities is the optimization of the forecasts for different applications in close cooperation with the users, as well as the development of probabilistic forecasts for the reliable description of forecast uncertainties and the reduction of the associated costs.



PV Prediction for Grid-Compatible Control of Heat Pumps



Solar Potentials of German Traffic Routes



Operational Delivery of Solar Irradiance and Simulated Photovoltaic Power Data to Transnet BW

Current Publications - Forecasting of Solar Irradiance and Power:

Publication Type
2022 High Resolution Measurement Network of Global Horizontal and Tilted Solar Irradiance in Southern Germany with a New Quality Control Scheme
Lorenz, E.; Guthke, P.; Dittmann, A.; Holland, N.; Herzberg, W.; Karalus, S.; Müller, B.; Braun, C.; Heydenreich, W.; Saint-Drenan, Y.-M.
Journal Article
2021 Referenzzellen vs. Pyranometer - Abweichungen und Umrechnung von Messwerten
Rivera Aguilar, M.J.; Reise, C.
Conference Paper
2021 A new sky imager based global irradiance forecasting model with analyses of cirrus situations
Dittmann, A.; Holland, N.; Lorenz, E.
Journal Article
2020 Minute Resolution Measurement Network for Global Horizontal and Tilted Solar Irradiance for a Transmission System Control Area in Southern Germany
Lorenz, E.; Holland, N.; Dittmann, A.; Herzberg, W.; Karalus, S.; Heydenreich, W.; Braun, C.; Guthke, P.; Semmig, A.
Conference Paper
2019 40 Jahre nach dem "Atlas über die Sonnenstrahlung in Europa". Umfang und Qualität Heutiger Einstrahlungsdatensätze
Reise, C.; Lorenz, E.; Müller, B.
Conference Paper
2019 Optimierung der PV-Speisung von Wärmepumpen durch Kurzfristprognosen mit Wolkenkameras
Dittmann, A.; Kober, P.; Lorenz, E.; Villegas Mier, O.; Ruf, H.; Schad, P.; Schmidt, M.
Conference Paper
2019 PV-Live. Auswertung satellitenbasierter und gemessener Solarstrahlungsdaten für PV-Hochrechnungen
Lorenz, E.; Heydenreich, W.; Braun, C.; Holland, N.; Xu-Sigurdsson, B.; Zech, T.; Dittmann, A.; Karalus, S.; Guthke, P.
Conference Paper
2019 Energy yield analysis of textured perovskite silicon tandem solar cells and modules
Tucher, Nico; Höhn, Oliver; Narasimha Murthy, Jayanth; Martínez Sánchez, Juan Francisco; Steiner, Marc; Armbruster, Alfons; Lorenz, Elke; Bläsi, Benedikt; Goldschmidt, Jan Christoph
Journal Article
2017 Angle dependence of solar cells and modules: The role of cell texturization
Geisemeyer, I.; Tucher, N.; Müller, B.; Steinkemper, H.; Hohl-Ebinger, J.; Schubert, M.C.; Warta, W.
Journal Article
Diese Liste ist ein Auszug aus der Publikationsplattform Fraunhofer-Publica

This list has been generated from the publication platform Fraunhofer-Publica

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