Short-term solar forecasting with sky imaging

Features of sky imager forecasting include 1 min temporal resolution, 10m spatial reso-lution, 15-30m forecast horizon and up to 20x20 km spatial extent.

Satellite data

Satellite data enable near real-time and high-resolution mapping of the irradiance and the feed-in of solar power.

Real-time monitoring of PV electricity supply

The inhouse-developed measuring station with pyranometer and silicon sensors of different orientation sends current measured values every minute.

Forecasting of Solar Irradiance and Power

Services

Real-time Monitoring of PV Clusters

  • Monitoring platforms
  • Mobile communication
  • Support of data analysis

Short-Term Forecasting with Sky Imagers

  • Development of algorithms
  • Cloud image analysis

Satellite Data

  • Real-time radiation data for PV power
    projections and monitoring
  • Model development of short-term
    forecasts based on cloud motion

Probabilistic
Forecasting

  • Development of algorithms
  • Application of numerical weather
    forecasts


Solar energy is subject to considerable temporal and spatial fluctuations. With the increasing share of solar energy in our energy supply system, the requirements for solar forecasts are also increasing. These forecasts form the basis for the cost-optimized use of various energy management options such as storage, control energy and controllable loads - all with the aim of integrating solar energy into our energy system at low cost. Today, PV forecasting plays an important role for trading with PV electricity and scheduling of power plants.

At Fraunhofer ISE, we are working on the development of forecasting models for the reliable prediction of the solar power for time scales from a few minutes up to several days and areas from single locations to regions of many kilometers. Different models and input data such as cloud camera, satellite-based and numerical weather predictions are integrated.

The focus of our research activities is the optimization of the forecasts for different applications in close cooperation with the users, as well as the development of probabilistic forecasts for the reliable description of forecast uncertainties and the reduction of the associated costs.

Trade Fairs / Conferences

SNEC PV POWER EXPO 2018

May 27-30, 2018
Shanghai, China

World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion (WCPEC-7)

June 10-15, 2018
Waikoloa, Hawaii

Intersolar Europe

June 20-22, 2018
Munich, Germany