Renewable Energy Scenarios – E2S – Regional Modeling of Energy Distribution

Duration: September 2011 - August 2014
Contracting Authority/ Sponsors: Fraunhofer Self-funded Research Project
© Fraunhofer ISE
Fig. 1: Predicted photovoltaic electricity generation for 2020, spatially resolved according to urban and rural administrative districts.
© Fraunhofer ISE
Fig. 2: Data extracted from OpenStreetMap to model the transmission grid.

The goal of the German Federal Government is to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases in 2050 by 80–95% compared to 1990. In addition to analysis of a cost-optimised future energy system, the question concerning the transformation rate for an energy system is also relevant. Time-resolved transformation processes thus play an important role for energy system analysis. Based on modelled development routes, the CO2 reduction, required grid extension or necessary flexibility options can be analysed. Within the internally funded research project on “Renewable Energy Scenarios – E2S”, the route to a future energy system based on renewable energy is analysed and evaluated.

A central question in the presentation of development routes is: Which group of actors will invest in which technology at which location for a given set of boundary conditions? Based on the present German energy system, the “E2S Investment Model” exploratively determines the expansion of renewable energy technologies, conventional power plants and storages. Political, economic and technological boundary conditions are taken into account. The examined investor groups consist of private persons, utilities, banks and foundations, commercial enterprises, project developers and farmers. Each group has different technological preferences – e.g. private persons invest primarily in rooftop PV – and different financing conditions. As a result, the investment in a technology is not equally beneficial for every investor. In addition, the location plays an important role particularly for renewable energy technologies due to their dependence on natural resources. The ”E2S investment model“ also takes account of the existing residential building stock with respect to renovation and the form of heating energy.

The ”E2S full-year simulation model“ simulates the operation of a given energy supply structure throughout a year and the associated regionally and temporally resolved electricity and heat flows. It consists of individual sub-models, which include models to simulate the electricity generation of PV and wind energy systems based on meteorological data, the operation planning of large power plants and storage units, decentralised cogenerating units and the thermal demand. Further, a grid model is integrated which includes all power lines from the 110 kV to 380 kV levels and simulates the load flow.

As an example, Fig. 1 describes the simulated annual electricity yield from the fluctuating photovoltaic technology for 2020, spatially resolved according to urban and rural administrative districts. This was based on results for the installed power which were determined by the ”E2S investment model“. Private investors, with a share of more than 60%, represent the largest financing group for PV systems. Bavaria, North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony are the States with the largest quantities of installed PV power. Fig. 2 presents the data extracted from OpenStreetMap on power lines. This was used to model the transmission grid, allowing the load flow to be simulated, and the degree of capacity utilisation and overloading to be determined.